Commercial Printing Industry Forecast: Growth Expected Through 2015
In a previous post, “Commercial Printing Industry Forecast 2011: Sales,” we talked about how our industry will grow this year for the first time since 2007. We were expecting growth of 1.0%–3.0%. Now we expect growth of 2.0%–4.0%.
We also expect our industry to continue growing over the next five years because the American economy is likely to continue growing over the next five years. We say that because of the economy’s history of producing expansions that are far longer than the recessions they follow. Specifically, since 1960 expansions have averaged 65.1 months while recessions have averaged 11.6 months. And since 1990 expansions have averaged 95.0 months while recessions have averaged 11.3 months.
So how much growth can we expect? About 3.0% per year, on average, through 2015. To project growth by year would only be guessing. We do know that growth will vary significantly from year to year, with some years closer to 4.0% or possibly even 5.0% and others closer to 1.0% or 2.0%, depending on the economy’s performance and our pricing power. And we also know that growth will be reserved for companies that are best prepared for what our industry is becoming—i.e., there will not be anything evenhanded about the recovery ahead.
How do we prepare for recovery? The February NAPL Printing Business Conditions and the NAPL State of the Industry Report, Ninth Edition, have plenty of recommendations.
What do you expect for our industry over the next five years? Please comment below.